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Dr. Andrew Crooks to present

at the Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker on Friday, December 07, 2018. Dr. Crooks, Associate Professor, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, will speak on “Computational Modeling of Slums: Progress and Challenges.” The presentation will begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall and will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

We hope to see you on Friday, December 7th at 3 p.m.

Abstract: Over the last 50 years the world has increasingly become more urbanized. Much of this growth has occurred in less developed countries, which often lack the resources to accommodate such growth. This has led to the growth of slums, estimated to be home for other 1 billion people. The UN-Habitat projects slum population to double by 2030, which would make them home for 2 in 5 people living in cities. In this talk I will introduce slums, discuss their growth, and provide an overview on what progress has been made to studying and modeling them. This will lead to a discussion of a series of key challenges that need to be addressed if we are to tackle slums from a computational perspective.

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Sanjay Nayar, CSS PhD student,

will be speaker at the Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences Friday, November 30, 2018. Sanjay’s talk entitled “Interlocking Directorates Analysis: Evidence from India BSE-100″ will begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

We hope to see you on Friday, November 30, 2018 at 3PM.

Abstract:

Interlocked directorates among companies are common across the world and have been studied quite extensively in the Western World. This study focuses on interlocking directorates, also referred to as inter-organizational elite cooptation (Allen, 1974), among the top 100 publicly traded companies on the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE-100) in India. The time period analyzed is between 2006 and 2010, the years spanning the recent great recession. While De (2012) looked at the performance effects of interlocking directorates within Indian business groups irrespective of their membership in BSE-100, it did not address in the analysis the key players, cliques, etc., the evolution of the interlocking over time, or any comparisons with the United States. This broad exploratory study is the first to look at the BSE-100 interlocking directorates’ network to see how it has or has not been dominated by a select group of individuals, companies or sectors during 2006-2010, along with the companies’ performances in the longer-term, given their position in the network. Some comparisons are also made with the US market using information available in published papers (Everard, 2002). This study also serves a secondary purpose of being an introduction to the interconnections between some of the biggest players in the Indian Economy/Stock Market and thus would also be of interest to those studying business in India.

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J. Brent Williams, Euclidian Trust,

will speak at the Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker on Friday, November 2. Mr. Williams, Founder and CEO, Euclidian Trust. will speak on “Improved Entity Resolution as a Foundation for Model Precision” (abstract below). The session will begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall and will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

Abstract: Analyzing behavior, identifying and classifying micro-differentiations, and predicting outcomes relies on the establishment of a core foundation of reliable and complete data linking. Whether data about individuals, families, companies, or markets, acquiring data from orthogonal sources results in significant matching challenges. These matching challenges are difficult because attempts to eliminate (or minimize) false positives yields an increase in false negatives. The converse is true also.

This discussion will focus on the business challenges in matching data and the primary and compounded impact on subsequent outcome analysis. Through practical experience, the speaker led the development and first commercialization of novel approach to “referential matching”. This approach leads to a more comprehensive unit data model (patient, customer, company, etc.), which enables greater computational resolution and model accuracy by hyper-accurate linking, disambiguation, and detection of obfuscation. The discussion also covers the impact of enumeration strategies, data obfuscation/hashing, and natural changes in unit data models over time.

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Brant Horio, director of Data Science at LMI,

will be speaker at Friday’s CSS Colloquium. LMI is a not-for-profit government consultancy based in Tysons, VA. Brant is also pursuing a Ph.D. in Computational Social Science at George Mason University. Brant’s talk entitled “The Pedagogy of Zombies: A Case Study of Agent-Based Modeling Competitions for Introducing Complexity, Simulation, and its Real-World Applications” (abstract below) is scheduled to begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

We hope to see you on Friday, October 26th.

Abstract: Complexity is pervasive in our daily lives and while academic programs exist to explore, interpret, experiment with, and apply these concepts to better understand the mechanics of our social world, the field is yet to be widely recognized in the mainstream consciousness. Are there engaging instructional methods and tools that can leverage a lower barrier to entry and indoctrinate new scholars into the science of complexity? In this Halloween-themed talk, I present a use case of a simulation modeling competition (and its evolution over several years) that provided preprogrammed agent-based models of a zombie apocalypse. Participants were challenged to explore and formalize human agent behaviors that leveraged their environment and other human agent-agent interactions to hide, evade, and otherwise prevent a grisly human extinction. I will describe the successes and challenges of this experience and a selection of the most creative solutions. I then go on to describe how this competition concept was extended to contemporary challenges that highlighted for participants potential real-world use cases that included combating the zika virus, and fisheries enforcement by the US Coast Guard. I hope for this talk to initiate dialog for how we might continue similar efforts to more easily introduce and propagate the complexity perspective.

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Oxford’s Ken Kahn at Friday colloquium

The Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker for Friday, October 19 will be Ken Kahn, Senior Researcher, Computing Services, University of Oxford. Dr. Kahn’s talk entitled “Agent-based Modelling for Everyone” (abstract below) is scheduled to begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

We hope to see you on Friday, October 19th.

Abstract: Agent-based models (ABMs) can be made accessible to a wide audience. A wonderful example is the Parable of the Polygons (https://ncase.me/polygons/) based upon Schelling’s segregation model. The challenge isn’t simply to provide an interactive simulation to the general public but to convey how the model works and what assumptions underlie it. The speaker has been involved in three efforts to do more than make the models but understandable but also to enable people without computer programming experience to get a hands-on understanding of the process of modelling. One project attempted to model the 1918 Pandemic in a modular fashion so learners could understand and modify the model. Another was the Epidemic Game Maker which was created for a Royal Society science exhibition. Finally a generic browser-based system for creating ABMs by composing and customising pre-built “micro-behaviours” will be described. All of these systems will be demonstrated.

Bio: Ken Kahn is a researcher at the University of Oxford. He led the Modelling4All Project (modelling4all.org) for ten years. He built the Behaviour Composer which provides a high-level interface to NetLogo.

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Dr. Maciej Latek speaker at 10/12 Colloquium

The Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker for Friday, October 12, will be Maciej Latek (Computational Social Science Ph.D. 2011), Chief Technology Officer, trovero. Dr. Latek’s talk entitled “Industrializing multi-agent simulations: The case of social media marketing, advertising and influence campaigns” (abstract below) will begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

Abstract: System engineering approaches required to transition multi-agent simulations out of science into decision support share features with AI, machine learning, and application development, but also present unique challenges. In this talk, I will use trovero as an example to illustrate how some of these challenges can be addressed.

As a platform to help advertisers and marketers plan and implement campaigns on social media, trovero is comprised of social network simulations for optimization and automation and network population synthesis used to preserve people’s privacy while maintaining a robust picture of social media communities. Social network simulations forecast campaign outcomes and pick the right campaigns for given KPIs. Simulation is the only viable way to reliably forecast campaign outcomes. Big data methods fail to forecast campaign outcomes, because they are fundamentally unfit for social network data. Network population synthesis enables working with aggregate data without relying on data-sharing agreements with social media platforms that are ever more reluctant to share user data with third parties after GDPR and the Cambridge Analytica debacle.

I will outline how these two approaches complement one another, what computational and data infrastructure is required to support them, and how workflows and interactions with social media platforms are organized.

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Dr. Robert Axtell Friday Speaker

Dr. Robert Axtell, Professor, Computational Social Science Program, Department of Computational and Data Sciences, College of Science/Department of Economics, College of Humanities and Social Sciences, George Mason University, will be the speaker at the Computational Social Science Research Colloquium/Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker on Friday, September 28. Dr. Axtell’s talk entitled “Are Cities Agglomerations of People or of Firms? Data and a Model” (abstract below) will begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the newly created CSS program YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

ABSTRACT: Business firms are not uniformly distributed over space. In every country there are large swaths of land on which there are very few or no firms, coexisting with relatively small areas on which large numbers of businesses are located—these are the cities. Since the dawn of civilization the earliest cities have husbanded a variety of business activities. Indeed, often the raison d’etre for the growth of villages into towns and then into cities was the presence of weekly markets and fairs facilitating the exchange of goods. City theorists of today tend to see cities as amalgams of people, housing, jobs, transportation, specialized skills, congestion, patents, pollution, and so on, with the role of firms demoted to merely providing jobs and wages. Reciprocally, very little of the conventional theory of the firm is grounded in the fact that most firms are located in space, generally, and in cities, specifically. Consider the well-known facts that both firm and city sizes are approximately Zipf distributed. Is it merely a coincidence that the same extreme size distribution approximately describes firm and cities? Or is it the case that skew firm sizes create skew city sizes? Perhaps it is the other way round, that skew cities permit skew firms to arise? Or is it something more intertwined and complex, the coevolution of firm and city sizes, some kind of dialectical interplay of people working in companies doing business in cities? If firm sizes were not heavy-tailed, but followed an exponential distribution instead, say, could giant cities still exist? Or if cities were not so varied in size, as they were not, apparently, in feudal times, would firm sizes be significantly attenuated? In this talk I develop the empirical foundations of this puzzle, one that has been little emphasized in the extant literatures on firms and cities, probably because these are, for the most part, distinct literatures. I then go on to describe a model of individual people (agents) who arrange themselves into both firms and cities in approximate agreement with U.S. data.

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CDS’s Michael Eagle 9/21 speaker

The Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker for Friday, September 21 will be Michael Eagle, Asst. Professor, Computational and Data Sciences, College of Science. Dr. Eagle’s talk is scheduled to begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. His talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

Some of Dr. Eagle’s publication topics include:

Predicting Individual Differences for Learner Modeling in Intelligent Tutors from Previous Learner Activities
Measuring Gameplay Affordances of User-Generated Content in an Educational Game
Estimating Individual Differences for Student Modeling in Intelligent Tutors from Reading and Pretest Data
Using game analytics to evaluate puzzle design and level progression in a serious game
Measuring Implicit Science Learning with Networks of Player-Game Interactions
Exploration of Student’s Use of Rule Application References in a Propositional Logic Tutor An Algorithm for Reducing the Complexity of Interaction Networks
Evaluation of Automatically Generated Hint Feedback
Exploring Player Behavior with Visual Analytics InVis: An Interactive Visualization Tool for Exploring Interaction Networks

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

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CORRECTION: William Kennedy, PhD, Captain, USN (Ret.), featured on 9/14 seminar

The Computational Social Science Research Colloquium /Colloquium in Computational and Data Sciences speaker for Friday, September 21, will be William Kennedy, PhD, Captain, USN (Ret.), Research Assistant Professor, Center for Social Complexity, Computational and Data Sciences, College of Science. Dr. Kennedy’s talk entitled “Characterizing the Reaction of the Population of NYC to a Nuclear WMD” (abstract below) will begin at 3:00 in the Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

We hope to see you on Friday, September 21st.

Abstract: This talk will review our status two years into our multi-year project to characterize the reaction of the population of a US megacity to a nuclear WMD event. Our approach has been to develop an agent-based model of the New York City area, with agents representing each of the 23 million people, and establish a baseline of normal behaviors before exploring the population’s reactions to small (5-10Kt) nuclear weapon explosions. We have modeled the environment, agents, and their interactions, but there have been some challenges in the last year. I’ll review our successes and challenges as well as near-term plans.

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Laidlaw Scholar Kieran Marray opens fall colloquium series

Welcome back everyone!

The opening colloquium speaker for the fall semester is Kieran Marray. Kieran is a Laidlaw Scholar from St Catherine’s College, University of Oxford. He has been visiting the Center for Social Complexity over the summer to do research in complexity economics supervised by Professor Rob Axtell.

Kieran’s talk entitled “FORTEC: Forecasting the Development of Artificial Intelligence up to 2050 Using Agent-Based Modelling” (abstract follows) is scheduled for 3:00 p.m. on Friday, August 31, in the Center for Social Complexity suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

This session will be live-streamed on the newly created CSS program YouTube channel: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7YCR-pBTZ_9865orDNVHNA

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

We hope to see you on Friday, August 31.

FORTEC: Forecasting the Development of Artificial Intelligence up to 2050 Using Agent-Based Modeling

The past decade has been characterised by massive leaps forward in fields like machine learning and computer vision. Will it last? How should we think about this problem? I shall argue that agent-based modelling can be used to forecast the emergence of innovation in AI and should be able to do so better than the current models. I shall do this as follows. Firstly, I shall review previous attempts, specifically Osborne and Frey (2013) and McKinsey (2017). However, I shall show that the methodology underlying these approaches is flawed due to its reliance upon expert opinion. This can be reduced by simulating the individual firms and their actions in an empirically realistic manner. So, I shall attempt to do this, building an agent-based forecasting model (FORTEC) from the bottom up. It will be applied to the set of firms and research labs in the US working on AI to derive the first empirical predictions for the ability to automate nineteen different types of task from now until 2050. The model is far from perfect, though; it is intended simply as a first approximation for others to build upon. Therefore, I shall finish by laying out some ways in which this framework could be applied or improved, from forecasting innovations in other high-technology industries such as photovoltaics to simulating non-American firms.