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“Modeling Panic with Psychological Agents”

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CSS Seminar

Friday, May 4, 2018

Center for Social Complexity Suite located on the 3rd floor of Research Hall

3:00 pm

Final Seminar of Semester. Program Will Recommence in Fall 2018.

Sanjay Nayar, CSS PhD student, will present “Modeling Panic with Psychological Agents” (abstract below) in this Friday’s CSS seminar. The talk will be followed by a Q&A session along with light refreshments.

For announcements regarding this and future streams, please join the CSS/CDS student and alumni Facebook group: https://www.facebook.com/groups/257383120973297/

For a list of upcoming and previous seminars, please visit: https://cos.gmu.edu/cds/calendar/

Abstract: Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) is steadily gaining traction in the modeling of real-world financial models built/used by organizations such as the Office of Financial Research, IMF, European Central Bank and others. As expected, the models are starting to show more complexity over the years but still lack much detailed modeling of agents at a psychological level. This becomes especially important in a crisis as individuals panic and make emotional decisions that are far from being fully rational or perhaps even boundedly-rational, in the traditional definition of the term. This exploratory talk will cover some of the recent ABM efforts in modeling financial crises and discuss the possible design elements for implementing and enhancing the psychological modeling of individuals agents, focusing on panic behavior in highly stressful/disastrous situations. Similarities and differences between financial panic and pedestrian/evacuation panic models will also be discussed, along with underlying theories of panic such as panics of “escape” and panics of “affiliation.”